The world's top climate authority, the World Meteorological Organisation, says the weather phenomenon El Niño has an 80% chance of forming and warns that it could drive up temperatures and fuel droughts and flooding worldwide.
Governments have been warned to brace for a severe disruption in weather patterns.
Providing a climate advisory from its Geneva headquarters earlier this week, the Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organisation, Celeste Saulo, said the powerful Pacific Ocean pattern is developing and is set to disrupt global weather over the coming months.
"Our experts estimate an 80% probability that El Niño conditions will emerge in the period between June and August 2026. This likelihood increases from 90% through the remainder of the forecast period, that is, September to December. Although some uncertainty remains about El Niño peak strength, most forecast models suggest it will be at least moderate with the possibility of becoming strong. This update matters because El Niño is the main driver of global weather and climate patterns. A warmer ocean adds heat and moisture to the climate system, which can serve to worsen climate extremes, including heatwaves and heavy rainfall."
Saulo, however, pointed out that El Niño does not need to be a recipe for disaster, noting that such forecasts by the WMO are a call to action with reliable and accurate information.
"We can anticipate impacts, take steps and act before hazards become crises. We must act to intensify early warning systems, including those hazards amplified by El Niño. 128 countries now report that they have multi-hazard early warning systems in place. Our goal must be to ensure that everybody has access to science-based advanced intelligence so that communities are empowered to manage risks and to preserve lives and property, to make decisions about crop strategy, to manage heat and drought and to prepare for storms and cyclones."
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged countries to treat El Niño as an imminent threat and prepare for its impacts in a statement delivered on his behalf by Alessandra Vellucci, Director of the United Nations Information Service in Geneva.
"El Niño is expected to arrive in the coming months with a 90% certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warming that it is. El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impact will hit even harder and travel even further across borders with devastating speed. The only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis."
El Niño is a climate phenomenon that occurs when ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become unusually warm. It can disrupt global weather patterns, causing droughts in some regions and heavy rainfall or flooding in others.